基于IPAT理论的城镇建筑能耗测算模型和应用  

Urban Building Energy Consumption Calculation based on the IPAT Theory

作　　者：邹璀[1] 刘秀丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第S2期82-85,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘　　要：近年来我国城镇建筑能耗总量呈快速增长态势,迫切需要探寻适合我国城镇建筑节能的策略。本文首先基于IPAT模型的理论思想,结合ARMA的时间序列模型,构建了城镇建筑能耗的测算模型。然后应用情景分析方法,对城镇建筑能耗发展进行了情景分析和模型计算预测,测算出2011年至2015年我国的城镇建筑能耗总量。最后对城镇建筑能耗当前的发展状况和节能潜力进行了对应的分析和探讨,提出了我国城镇建筑节能的相关建议。In these years,the total amount of urban building energy consumption and the growth rate are both in great growth trend in China.Therefore it is urgent to seek energy-saving strategies for urban building in China.This paper firstly applies IPAT model combined with ARMA method to set up an urban building energy consumption model.It secondly analyzes and calculates the urban building energy consumption by using the analysis of circumstance,and then predicts the amount of urban building energy consumption in China during 2011-2015.Finally,this paper provides some advices for urban building energy efficiency in China,based on the analysis of the sustainable development approach and energy-saving potential.

关 键 词：建筑能耗 节能 IPAT理论 情景分析 城镇 

分 类 号：TU111.195[建筑科学—建筑理论]