情景分析法在我国环境保护相关领域管理决策中的现状与展望  

Application Situation and Expectation of Scenario Analysis in Decision-.making of Environmental Protection

作　　者：云雅如[1] 王淑兰[1] 胡君[2] 段菁春[1] 柴发合[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [2]长沙环境保护职业技术学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第S2期131-135,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：环保公益性行业科研专项"重污染城市空气质量达标策略与关键支撑技术研究"(编号:201109002)

摘　　要：近年来我国环境污染问题日益严重,对公众健康和生态系统安全造成极大的威胁,给管理带来巨大的挑战。现阶段要解决这些制约我国城市和区域社会经济发展的环境问题,突破管理和决策中的瓶颈,迫切需要寻求一种基于深入剖析环境问题成因和特征而建立的行之有效的管理机制,特别是急需寻找一种强大的决策支持技术作为有力支撑。本文以管理决策中常用的情景分析技术为主要研究内容,以我国环境保护相关领域为研究对象,搜集情景分析法在能源、资源利用、交通运输、气候变化和环境保护领域的应用情况及取得的成果。结果显示,情景分析法在各个领域的应用均经历了由单一预测,向气候演变、环境保护相耦合方向的发展过程。分析近年来有关情景分析方法在各相关领域管理决策中的进展情况,特别是分析环境领域不同研究方向的应用进展,为今后在该领域中的更加有效的应用提供借鉴。The deterioration of environment pollution forced a great threat to public health and ecological system security,and made huge challenge to environmental management in China in recent years.Now,to solve the problems and break the bottleneck in the management and decision-making restricts urban and regional social-economy development.A management mechanism based on deeply analysis of the causes and characteristics of environmental problems,and more important is buitt,and effective decision-.making technology is needed.The references on scenario analysis of energy,resources usage,construction,climate change and pollution control are collected,and the application and development of scenario analysis in environmental protection related areas are studied.It shows that the application of scenario analysis experiences a procedure of from single prediction to coupling prediction with environmental protection and climate change.Analysis of progress of scenario analysis is applied in the field of environmental protection,especially in different branches.

关 键 词：情景分析法 环境保护 决策 应用 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]