京津冀都市圈城镇扩展时空过程及其未来情景预测  

Spatial-temporal characteristics and scenario prediction of urban expansion in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

作　　者：徐新良[1] 通拉嘎[1] 郑凯迪[2] 张学霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]北京林业大学水土保持与荒漠化防治教育部重点试验室,北京100083

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第S2期256-261,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家973计划"大尺度土地利用变化对全球气候的影响"(编号:2010CB950901);国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流项目"全球气候变化和高强度人类活动影响下的中国农业生态系统承载力研究"(编号:40921140410)

摘　　要：近年来,京津冀都市圈城市化发展迅速,快速城市化过程导致了人地矛盾日益尖锐、环境污染、交通拥挤、居住环境恶化等一系列城市问题。本文利用GIS空间分析方法,分析了1990-2008年京津冀都市圈城镇扩展的时空过程,并在此基础上,运用SLEUTH模型,模拟了不同发展场景下京津冀都市圈城镇扩展的未来情景。研究发现:1990-2008年京津冀都市圈城镇扩展明显,城镇面积净增加4022.37km2,年平均扩展速率为1.91%,1990年以后城镇扩展速率呈逐步减缓的趋势。城镇扩展在空间格局上呈现显著的"双核、一带和两轴、多中心"的特征。城镇扩展对耕地资源的占用特别明显,18年间,耕地面积净减少3507.62km2,年减少速率为0.23%。2008-2020年京津冀都市圈城镇扩展速率较历史时期将有一定减缓,2020年以后城镇扩展速率将进一步下降。京津冀都市圈未来城镇扩展仍然将侵占一定的耕地资源,2020年以后耕地萎缩的态势将减缓。As an important economic center in China,urban expansion in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region is always at a high speed in recent years.Using GIS spatial analysis technology and land use datasets in 1990,1995,2000,2005 and 2008,derived from interpretation based on Landsat TM/ETM images,this paper firstly analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of urban expansion during 1990-2008,then simulated and forecasted the urban expansion process in the next 30 years using SLEUTH model.The results indicated that:①The urban expansion is very obvious during 1990-2008,the urban land area increased by 4022.37 km2,and annual average increase rate is 1.91%.On the other hand,the temporal process of urban expansion takes on a slowing trend after 1990.②In the spatial pattern,the urban expansion shows characteristics of 'dual-core,one-zone,two-axis and Multi-center '.③Occupying farmland of urban expansion process is very obvious during 18 years,and the area of farmland decreases by 3507.62 km2,and annual average decrease rate is 1.23%.③During 2008-2020,the urban expansion rate will decrease,and the urban expansion rate will further decrease during 2020-2030.⑤In the future,the urban expansion will still occupy some farmland,and the farmland area decrease rate will further decrease after 2020.

关 键 词：京津冀 都市圈 城镇扩展 时空过程 未来情景 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]