拉美“增长性贫困”与社会保障的减困功能——国际比较的背景  

The Phenomenon of Poverty Rate Climbing with Economic Growth(Poporceg) and Poverty Reduction Effects of Social Security in Latin America & the Caribbean:An International Perspective

作　　者：郑秉文[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2009年第S1期3-29,96,共28页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：在考察1980～2008年拉美增长与贫困等数据时发现,拉美地区存在一个比较特殊的社会经济现象:一方面经济呈增长状态(虽然增幅很小),但另一方面贫困率却也呈持续上升趋势,只有当增长率超过3%时贫困率才开始下降。作者将拉美这个特殊现象称之为"增长性贫困"和"3%拐点假说"。索罗—斯旺增长模型的引入在理论上检验了增长可以减困和"3%拐点假说"的"增长性贫困"存在的依据,诠释了1981年以来智利增长与收入分配不公得以并存的现象,解释了分配不公会降低增长对减困的弹性的事实。实证分析的结果显示,有些相关在欧盟和美国是失灵的(如"3%拐点"),有些则没有失灵(如"奥肯定律")。重要的是,在比较欧盟和美国等经济体时发现,欧美社保制度的减困效果在拉美基本是"失灵"的,在作者估算中发现拉美地区社保制度的减困幅度和减困系数都远远小于欧盟和美国,并发现拉美社保制度的减困效果之所以会出现这个差距,之所以出现"增长性贫困",除初次分配不公和初始贫困率较高等其他因素之外,与拉美社保制度在改革之后存在一些问题存在高度相关:在缺乏再分配作用的同时,个人缴费率较高,对参保人遵缴率和缴费密度的要求较高,这与拉美就业市场多元化发展趋势形成冲突,参保人难以满足,导致替代率逐年下降;这一制度问题对制度外非参保人员形成负面影响,导致预期低下,进而致使制度覆盖面不但不能扩大,反而比改革前还要低。拉美式"半覆盖"社保制度却使其"合法性"逐渐开始演变成一个"政治问题":2008年11月阿根廷私有化社保制度的"国有化事件"和两年前厄瓜多尔私有化社保的"骚乱事件"可视为颠覆其"合法性"的开端,可见,拉美私有化社保模式将面临严峻考验。When looking back into the relevance of economic growth and poverty rate in Latin America & the Caribbean (hereafter LAC) in 1980-2008,people may find an interesting socio-economic phenomenon called the Phenomenon of Poverty Rate Climbing with Economic Growth(hereafter Poporceg) by the author;on the one hand, economic growth was going(although slower),on the other hand,poverty rate was climbing;only when the growth rate reached or exceeded 3%,could the poverty rate begin to fall.This Poporceg and the turning point of 3%could be examined by Solow-Swan growth model. An international comparative analysis shows that the hypotheses of 3%turning point may fail in EU countries, partly because the poverty reduction effects by social security in EU and US fail in LAC,i.e.the effect of slower economic growth in terms of poverty reduction in LAC is not as ideal as that in EU and US,the reduction effectiveness and the reduction factor both in EU and US are much better than that in LAC.The reason why the dysfunctional social security in terms of poverty reduction in LAC could be found in privatized social security where more than half of the employed in LAC could not be covered in social security and are exposed to poverty risk.This paper discusses in details the structure and the design of the privatized social security which could be lacking in elasticity to be enlarged to all the employed,and argues that this should be responsible for the Poporce,which should be one of the important reasons why the privatized social security approved an abortion in Ecuador by the end of 2007,and why it was re-nationalized in Argentine by the end of 2008.

关 键 词：社会保障私有化改革 经济增长 反贫困 社会保障制度比较 拉美社会保障 

分 类 号：D77[政治法律—政治学] F113[政治法律—中外政治制度]