基于齐波夫定律的我国滑坡泥石流灾害分析  

Analysis of the landslide and debris flow in China Based on the Law of Zipf

作　　者：袁志忠[1] 周耀渝[2] 唐旺旺[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉首大学生物资源与环境科学学院,湖南吉首416000 [2]湖南大学环境科学与工程学院,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2013年第4期34-39,共6页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：湖南省水利科技经费([2010]197-1);湖南省十二五省级重点学科"生态学"经费资助(12JD016)

摘　　要：统计了2000～2010年我国发生的有报道的滑坡、泥石流事件,对其发生次数与伤亡人数进行了相关统计和分析,结果表明四川省、云南省、陕西省和福建省滑坡泥石流发生频率最高,且夏季是我国滑坡泥石流事件发生最频繁、危害最大的季节;首次利用Zipf定律与分形理论结合我国的GDP、平均降水量、地震次数以及全国造林面积4个影响因子进行了分析,结果表明我国滑坡泥石流事故系统的演化不仅与降雨量,地震次数,造林面积有关系而且与GDP的增长也有密切关系,它们的等级图满足Zipf定律,并通过Zipf定律表明系统演化并没有呈现出不断优化的过程。In this paper,statistics of reported landslides and debris flows in China from 2000 to 2010 have been made. The results showed that the Province of Sichuan,Yunnan,Shanxi and Fujian are occurred most frequently of the landslide and debris flow,and the landslide debris flow events occur most frequently and hardest in summer. Then, combining the Law of Zipf with four impact factors such as the GDP of China,average rainfall,total earthquakes and the national afforestation area. The results showed that the evolution of landslide and debris flow accident not only with the rainfall,earthquakes times,afforestation area relationship but also with the GDP growth,their grade diagram meet Zipf's law,and through the Law of Zipf,it showed that the system evolution didn't take on continuous optimization.

关 键 词：齐波夫定律 滑坡泥石流 GDP 

分 类 号：P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]