中国未来人口发展与生育政策研究  

Future Population Development and Fertility Policy in China

作　　者：江亦曼 乔晓春 于学军 李建民[2] 原新[2] 解振明[3] 杨书章[3] 刘鸿雁[3] 陈卫[4] 姚宗桥 

机构地区：[1]国家计划生育委员会"中国未来人口发展与生育政策研究"课题组 [2]南开大学人口与发展研究所 [3]中国人口信息研究中心 [4]中国人民大学人口研究所

出　　处：《人口研究》2000年第3期18-34,共17页Population Research

摘　　要：This is a summary report of a State Family Planning Commission’s project on Future Population Development and Fertility Policy in China. The research examines China’s fertility and population changes in 1990s and discusses both the positive and negative outcomes of China’s family planning policy, Review of the results from some national fertility surveys reaches a conclusion that fertility norms and desires in China have undergone dramatic changes, and the couples’ desire on the number of children have dropped considerably lower than the replacement level. A 50-year long population projection is prepared, showing that the regulation that only-child couples can have two children will have a very small influence on population changes in China. Finally, the report outlines a population development strategy for the next 50 years towards the stabilization of the low fertility level in the post-transitional stage.This is a summary report of a State Family Planning Commission's project on Future Population Development and Fertility Policy in China. The research examines China's fertility and population changes in 1990s and discusses both the positive and negative outcomes of China's family planning policy, Review of the results from some national fertility surveys reaches a conclusion that fertility norms and desires in China have undergone dramatic changes, and the couples' desire on the number of children have dropped considerably lower than the replacement level. A 50-year long population projection is prepared, showing that the regulation that only-child couples can have two children will have a very small influence on population changes in China. Finally, the report outlines a population development strategy for the next 50 years towards the stabilization of the low fertility level in the post-transitional stage.

关 键 词：生育政策 独生子女 计划生育工作 生育率下降 稳定低生育水平 人口发展 生育意愿 低生育率 生育控制成本 总和生育率 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]