资本项目自由兑换的“平稳过渡模型”的初步构想  

Stable Transition Model of the Currency Convertibility on Capital Account

作　　者：李善民[1,2] 陈小蓓[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学管理学院 [2]光大证券研究所

出　　处：《中山大学学报（社会科学版）》1999年第3期42-50,共9页Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：对资本项目实行管制在一定历史条件下有其存在的理由，但随着汇兑限制的效力递减与成本递增，以及世界经济一体化的发展，资本项目自由兑换成为货币资本项目管理的必然趋势。从日本实现资本项目自由兑换的经验以及墨西哥和东南亚金融危机的教训，可总结出发展中国家在实现资本项目自由兑换过程中面临的问题。在此基础上，本文提出了“平稳过渡模型”的初步构想，尝试将发展中国家实现货币资本项目自由兑换过程中应满足的条件和面对的风险相对量化。根据模型，本文着重分析了中国的现实情况。Abstract It is reasonable to control the capital account under certain historical condition.However,currency convertibility on capital account will be the international trend of capital account management because of the decline of foreign exchange restriction, the increase of the cost, and the unification of the world economy.The realization of currency convertibility on capital account in Japan and the recent financial crisis in Mexico and Southeast Asian countries have revealed the problems in the process of currency convertibility on capital account in the developing countries.Therefore,we construct a Draft Stable Transition Model of the Currency Convertibility on Capital Account.The model tries to quantify the problems confronting the developing countries in the process of currency convertibility.Based on the model,this article analyzes Chinas status quo in particular,and raises some suggestions on the strategic options of RMB convertibility on capital account.

关 键 词：资本项目自由兑换 平稳过渡模型 金融市场 汇兑管制 金融危机 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学] F832.5