基于灰色系统理论的建设项目风险评价  

Study on Risk Evaluation of Engineering Project Based on Grey System Theory

作　　者：李丹[1] 袁永博[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《建筑经济》2007年第S2期96-98,共3页Construction Economy

摘　　要：传统的建设项目风险评价方法受人为因素的影响较大,降低了评价的客观性和准确性。为了减少或避免人为因素以及模糊随机因素的影响,增加评价的科学性、解释性和可信度,本文将灰色系统理论运用到建设项目的风险评价中,借助一套较为系统、合理的建设项目风险评价指标体系,将定性分析和定量计算相结合,构建了多层次灰色综合评价模型,并运用实例证明了模型的有效性。Traditional risk assessment methods of engineering project are often affected by subjective factors. In order to reduce or avoid the effect of subjective factors and fuzzy factors, the paper applies grey system theory to the risk evaluation of engineering project. Through a systematic and logical index evaluation system, a grey synthetical model is established by combining qualitative analysis and quantificational computability. In the end, a demonstration example was made to validate the method.

关 键 词：建设项目 风险 灰色综合评价 指标体系 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]