效用理论和敏感性分析在房地产开发项目中的综合运用  

Comprehensive Application of the Utility Theory and the Sensitivity Analysis in Real Estate Projects

作　　者：沈伟锋[1] 谭大璐[1] 尹健[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学建筑与环境学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《建筑经济》2007年第S1期64-66,共3页Construction Economy

摘　　要：效用理论和敏感性分析是项目风险评价中常用的两种方法。本文综合运用了效用理论和敏感性分析,对房地产开发项目的风险特点进行分析,建立了房地产开发项目中运用敏感性分析定权重的效用评价模型,将房地产开发项目决策中的主观与客观因素有效地结合,在一定程度上提高了传统决策方法的可靠性,为房地产开发项目的决策提供参考。Utility theory and sensitivity analysis are two ordinary methods used in project risk evaluation.Based on them,this paper analyzes the risk characteristic of real estate projects and sets up a utility decision-making model,in which the weight is decided by sensitivity analysis.It combines subjective factors and objective factors of real estate projects and improves the reliability of traditional utility decision-making methods at a certain degree and also provides reference for the decision-making of real estate projects.

关 键 词：房地产开发 决策 效用理论 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F224