基于可持续发展的可再生能源替代动态增长模型研究  

Study on Renewable Energy Dynamic State Growth Model on Sustainable Development Theory

作　　者：刘岩[1] 于渤[1] 洪富艳[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]哈尔滨商业大学财政与公共管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《中国软科学》2011年第S1期240-246,共7页China Soft Science

摘　　要：可再生能源清洁无污染,其对环境的正外部性作用有利于降低环境污染压力,其特有的资源和环境优势,已成为中国能源战略的重要组成部分和实现低碳经济发展模式的重要途径。利用可再生能源替代耗竭性化石能源是实现经济社会可持续发展的必然选择和主要途径。文章运用最优控制理论,通过引入替代率、能源污染损失函数,建立了含资本、能源、劳动投入的可再生能源替代的动态系统的数学模型,并分析了在满足可持续发展对能源总需求的前提下,可再生能源替代化石能源在理论上的最优动态策略,通过利用统计数据对替代率进行测算,计算了2011-2030年每年的可再生能源替代率水平和可再生能源消费量,描述可再生能源在未来20年的期望替代路径。Can the renewable energy sweep free from pollution,it to environment of positive function in the exterior be advantageous to lowering pollution of the environment pressure,it special resources and environment advantage,have become China energy strategy of importance constitute part and realization low carbon economy development mode of importance path.Make use of can renewable energy act for use up sex fossil energy is realization economy society can keep on develop of inevitable choice and main path,this text usage superior control theories,pass to lead go into act for rate,energy pollution loss function,establishment contain capital,energy,labor devotion of can renewable energy act for of the mathematics model of dynamic state system,and analysis under the premise that satisfy can keep on develop to energy gross demand,can renewable energy act for fossil energy theoretically the superior dynamic state strategy,pass make use of covariance data rightness act for the rate carry on to measure calculate,calculation 2011 -2030 year every year of can renewable energy act for rate level with can renewable energy consume quantity,description can renewable energy in the coming 20 year of expectation act for path.

关 键 词：可持续发展 可再生能源 动态增长模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F206F124