区间证据推理法在区域环境风险评价中的应用  

APPLYING OF INTERVAL-EVIDENTIAL REASONING(IER)APPROACH IN REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

作　　者：周美春[1] 钱新[1] 钱瑜[1] 张玉超[1] 王勤耕[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2010年第S1期160-165,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：863计划重大项目课题(2008AA06A405);江苏省人事厅"六大人才高峰"项目(2006327)

摘　　要：区域环境风险评价(Regional Environmental Risk Assessment,RERA)对象所产生的环境影响的复杂性,造成在对风险进行影响识别时常需采用专家意见等定性评价方法,带来了大量的不确定信息和未知信息。近年来,随着环境风险评价(Environmental Risk Assessment,ERA)的发展,迫切需要能够模拟和分析不确定问题的方法用于评价。基于证据理论(D-S理论)和证据推理(ER)法的区间证据推理(IER)法用于区域环境风险评价(RERA),阐述了IER法的基本原理,并用实例展示IER法运用信度结构、评价语言转换技术和IER综合运算分别表述、转换和综合多属性的区域环境风险评价初始信息。最后,结合决策者偏好的效用函数,得出每一风险受体所承受的相对风险及每一风险源的相对风险,从而确定最敏感受体和最危险源。研究表明,区间证据推理法使不同风险评价方法(证据)结论的融合成为可能,每一种方法(证据)的加入都将使结果不断逼近真实。融合的结论为风险管理和决策提供依据。For the complicated environmental effects of the objects of Regional Environmental Risk Assessment(RERA),the qualitative evaluations including expert advices are needed to identify the effects of risk,which inevitably involve uncertainties such as uncertainties and ignorance.Therefore,ERA problems need to be analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainties.In this paper,the Interval evidential reasoning(IER)approach was applied in RERA.Firstly,the IER approach was briefly explained.In a hypothetic case,the original multiple attribute assessment information was listed in belief structure through information transformation technique and the assessment information was aggregated with IER algorithm.Then,integrated the utility function in the RERA,the relative risk of every riskReceptor and risk-Resource were gained.It has been shown that IER approach made it possible to fuse the results of different methods,and each join of the method made the final result close to the truth.This study provided evidences for decision-making.

关 键 词：区间证据推理法 区域环境风险评价 信度结构 语言转换技术 效用函数 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]