“后危机”世界经济与中国选择:三个视野的综合与前瞻  

Post-crisis and China's Choice: Integration and Foresight of Three Vision

作　　者：赵伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学国际经济研究所

出　　处：《南京社会科学》2014年第1期27-37,共11页Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"产业协同集聚与我国产业升级研究"(11AJL010)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：世界经济"后危机"既是一个时段,也是一种状态。文章从全球经济失衡、全球经济治理体系以及经济全球化三个视野切入,分析了影响"后危机"世界经济之关键因素的状态与动态,并以中国经济为原点做了综合与预期。研究揭示,作为世界经济震荡基础因子的全球经济失衡虽然好坏参半,但部分环节在转好;全球经济存在一个"分层的3G"治理架构,这个治理构架起了稳定作用;经济全球化新阶段不可逆转,且有利于中国经济调整。综合判断,"后危机"时段行将过去,中国经济最大的战略利益在于加快转变增长方式。从中国经济约束条件看,三个视野都有一些利好因素可以利用。但利用这些因素推动国内经济转型的几率与程度,则有待于体制改革的突破与深化。Post-crisis is both a period of time and a kind of state. This paper analyzes the status and dynamic of key influence factors for the world economy in the post crisis era from the global economic imbalances,global economic governance system and economic globalization,and then makes comprehensive and expectations based on the Chinese economy. The paper reveals that global economic imbalances is improving in some sessions,there is a governance structure of 3G hierarchy in global economy,and this structure has stabilizing effect. The new stage of economic globalization is irreversible,and is conducive to China's economic adjustment. By comprehensive judgments, ' post crisis era' will past,China's biggest strategic interest is to speed up the transformation of economic growth pattern,and there are some positive factors can be used,but the probability and degree to use of these factors to promote domestic economic transformation is subject to breakthrough and deepening of the institutional reform.

关 键 词：“后危机” 经济失衡 全球经济治理体系 中国选择 

分 类 号：F113.4[经济管理—国际贸易]