高校扩招对大学毕业生工资的干预效应  

The Effect of Higher Education Expansion on the Wage of College Graduates

作　　者：姚先国[1] 方昕[1] 钱雪亚[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《人口与经济》2014年第1期67-79,共13页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"城乡劳动力市场整合机理与实现机制研究"(70933001)

摘　　要：基于'控制-干预'的思想,文章使用1998~2009年中国城镇住户调查数据,通过双差分模型和三次差分模型,分析了高校扩招政策对大学毕业生工资的干预效应。研究结果表明:在大学毕业生群体中,受到扩招影响的新毕业生遭受了一定程度的工资损失;考虑高中毕业生的相对变化后,高校扩招对大学新毕业生年工资的负效应显著减弱。在扩招干预效应的变化上,本文发现:随着时间的推移,扩招对新毕业生工资的负效应逐渐减弱,受扩招影响的较年长大学毕业生的工资损失降低。Under a treatment control framework , this paper uses DID ( Difference in Difference Models ) Method and its extended form ( Difference in Difference in Difference Models ) with the Ur-ban Household Survey Datasets from 1998 to 2009 , to investigate the impact of higher education expansion policy on college graduates in the labor market .The results indicate that higher education expansion has caused the wage loss of college graduates who affected by this policy , when we take the change of high school graduates into consideration , the loss of wage can be reduced .Considering impact changes of the higher education expansion , this study finds that the negative effect on the youngest college graduates has decreased over time and loss of wage in older college graduates has been smaller than their youth .

关 键 词：高校扩招 大学毕业生 干预效应 三重差分模型 

分 类 号：G647.38[文化科学—高等教育学]