一维迭代模型与国民经济系统的预测和控制  

The Pattern of One-Dirnension Alternate Replacement and the Projection and Control of National Economic System

作　　者：沈华嵩[1] 傅琳[2] 姜旭 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所经济理论与政策研究室 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [3]国家经济信息中心

出　　处：《经济学家》1991年第6期93-101,124,共10页Economist

摘　　要：从非均衡货币储蓄经济周期模型可以得到边际消费倾向的一维递归方程。运用中国的统计数据测算的结果表明,在不同的参数值范围,边际消费倾向可能出现如下几种情形:收敛于均衡值;稳定的周期振荡;混沌但有界;不稳定并导致结构解体。同时,经济系统对消费倾向初始值的选定是高度敏感的,对国民经济的控制既可通过调整投资系数,也可通过调整边际消费率来进行。From the economic cyclical model of nonequilibrium monetary savings we can get the one-dimension recursive equation of marginal consumption tendency. With Chinese statistic data, the calculation result shows that, within the scopes of different variables, the marginal consumption tendencies may be tilted to: contraction to equilibrium value; stable cyclical vi-bration; obscure but demarcation; unstable and leading to structural breakup. And the economic system is highly sensible to the option of initial value of consumption tendency,and the control of national economy can be made by adjusting investment coefficients and also by adjusting marginal consumption rates.

关 键 词：边际消费倾向 国民经济系统 迭代模型 货币储蓄 递归方程 投资系数 初始值 国民总产值 动态模式 非均衡 

分 类 号：F0[经济管理—政治经济学]