概率增益方法及其应用  

Method of probability gain and its application in the seismic prediction

作　　者：邱雪强 沈繁銮[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南省地震局,海南海口570203

出　　处：《华南地震》2004年第2期6-10,共5页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：十五"国家科技攻关"强地震短期预测及救灾技术研究"子专题01-04-03资助

摘　　要：应用金学申、王晓青等推广的以时空概率增益模型为基础的综合预测模型,选取东南沿海地震带区域,分别计算了地震活动的时间和空间上的地震概率增益,并对其中的概率增益等参数进行分析,结果表明本区域的未来控震构造是北东向活动断裂带,未来3年本区域发生5级以上的地震概率较小。We apply the compositive prediction model based on space-time probability gain, which JIN Xue-shen and WANG Xiao-qing generalize, to elected the southeast coastal seismic belt. We calculate the probability gain of seismic activities on space-time in the area and analyze probability gain parameter, etc. The results indicate that the northeast active fault zone is the main controlling-earthquake structure in the future and the probability of M_L≥5 earthquakes occurring in future 3 years is lower than now.

关 键 词：地震预测方法 概率增率 东南沿海地震带 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]