奥运场馆水立方的客流量与网络关注度关系分析  

Analysis of the relation between Olympic stadiums' tourist flow and network attention——A case of Water Cube

作　　者：汪秋菊[1] 贾宇 刘宇[1] 王静[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学旅游学院,北京100101 [2]北京国家游泳中心有限责任公司,北京100101

出　　处：《东北石油大学学报》2013年第5期118-124,134,共8页Journal of Northeast Petroleum University

基　　金：北京市教育委员会社科计划面上项目(SM201211417007)

摘　　要：根据消费者购买决策理论,分析旅游目的地客流量与网络关注度的关系,比较水立方2010年8月1日—2011年12月31日期间每日客流量与网络关注度变化曲线,采用非结构性方法建立VAR模型,判断两者之间的动态影响关系.结果表明:水立方旅游网络关注度与客流量之间存在双向Granger因果关系,同时两者之间的时滞效应也是存在的.旅游前1d网络关注度增加,当天客流量也会增加.客流量与7、8d后旅游网络关注度呈显著负相关.依赖网络信息源传播信息的游客在整个旅游消费群体中的比例大,是水立方客流量与网络关注度两者相互影响的重要前提.In the framework of consumer purchase decision theory,we analyzed the action mechanism between tourist flow and network attention in tourism destination,by means of the dates of daily tourist flow and Baidu index from Aug.1,2010to Dec.31,2011we analyzed the difference of the two curves,established VAR model using non-structural method to judge the relationship between the dynamic effects.Research shows that there are interactions between tourist flow and the degree of consumer attention of travel network,and at the same time lag effects exists.If network attention increases one day before,tourist flow will increase;tourist flow will influence the 7TH-8TH days’ network attention after tourism significantly negatively.It is an important prerequisite which Water Cube’s tourist flow and network attention are correlated that the size of young tourists is large in consumer groups.

关 键 词：客流量 网络关注度 VAR模型 旅游目的地 水立方 奥运场馆 

分 类 号：TE55[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]