现阶段我国消费需求波动影响因素分析及政策建议  

Analysis of China's Consumer Demand Influencing Factors and Policy Suggestions

作　　者：田青[1] 王楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2013年第6期55-62,共8页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(10BJY018):中国居民消费行为的特征;成因及影响因素实证分析;负责人:田青;国家社科基金重大项目(10zd&010)":十二五"时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究;负责人:高铁梅;辽宁省优秀人才支持项目(WR2013010)<:中国居民消费选择行为的动态演变及原因:从微观数据到宏观表象>;负责人:田青

摘　　要：2013年1～8月,我国社会消费品零售总额名义增速减慢,实际增速基本稳定,总体上呈现缓中回稳、稳中回升的态势。其中,农村社会商品零售总额增速明显超过城镇,并继续保持增长态势;餐饮业消费年初明显下滑,高档烟酒消费市场不景气;房地产、汽车等消费涨势较为强劲。未来一段时期,信息消费有望出现较高增长,城镇化继续拉动消费,"三公消费"将大幅减少,即政府消费有所减少,居民消费稳定增加。预计在宏观经济形势趋好和有序促进消费政策措施的作用下,我国消费需求将保持稳定增长,并呈稳中加快的趋势。In January 2013 to August, with the nominal growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods showing a trend of slowing, the actual growth rate is gradually stabilizing. In general, the overall national economy realized&nbsp;steady development and grew at a moderate pace. Compared to urban, rural has a much faster growth rate and the tendency maintains increase. Owing to the inlfuence of the domestic policy environment, catering consumption declines signiifcantly when the superior quality wine and tobacco market faces an identical predicament. However, real estate and automobile consumption has been rapidly rising. In the next phase, information consumption is expected to be higher growth, urbanization will continue to boost consumption and“the three public consumptions”is about to reduce drastically. According to this trend, government spending is going to decrease and the residents’ consumption will increase stability. Guided by the macroeconomic measure, Chinese economy still has room for moderate growth and shows some signs of accelerating.

关 键 词：消费需求 影响因素 政策建议 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]