我国“十二五”规划节能目标可行性分析  

Feasibility analysis of China's "12th Five-Year" Plan energy- saving target

作　　者：王维国[1] 孙晨[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2013年第6期70-78,共9页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(项目号:10zd&010)":十二五"时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究;首席专家:高铁梅;国家自然科学基金项目(项目号:71171035):基于结构突变和截面相关的省际碳排放面板协整检验方法;负责人:王维国;辽宁省高校创新团队支持计划(编号:WT2011004):宏观经济系统优化分析;动态监测与政策评价;负责人:王维国

摘　　要：本文以我国"十二五"规划关于节能的总目标为主线,建立了全国能源强度的影响因素模型,预测了宏观经济各影响因素在2015年的变动范围,从三种情形讨论了"十二五"节能目标的可行性。结论认为2015年我国能够完成"十二五"规划的节能目标,但是需要对能源强度的影响因素进行调整:①继续调整优化产业结构,提高第三产业的比重;②完善能源价格体系:在2012～2015年的三年时间内,能源价格指数需要提高20.39%,年均提高6.38%;③实现能源消费多元化,降低煤炭消费比重;④优化外贸结构;⑤充分发挥技术进步对能源利用效率提高的作用。This paper puts the feasibility of the energy conservation goal of "Twelfth Five-Year" plan as the main line and establishes a model of inlfuencing-factors at the national level. Secondly, the paper preinstalls the range of the influencing-factors through scenario analysis and further discusses the feasibility of "Twelfth Five-Year" energy saving target in three situations. Finally, a conclusion is obtained that the"Twelfth Five-Year"energy saving target could be fuliflled under the premise that the inlfuence-factors of energy intensity be adjusted:Continue to adjust and optimize the industrial structure and increase the proportion of the tertiary industry;Improve the energy price system:the price index of energy needs to be increased by 20.39%with an average annual increase of 6.38%from 2012 to 2015;Realize the diversiifcation of energy consumption and reduce the proportion of coal consumption;Optimize the foreign trade structure;Give full play to the role of technological progress on improving energy efifciency.

关 键 词：能源强度 “十二五”规划节能目标可行性 非线性规划 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]