2013年我国石油行业发展形势及面临的挑战  

The development situation and the challenges of China's petroleum industry In 2013

作　　者：范丹[1] 王维国[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院经济计量分析与预测研究中心,大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2013年第6期96-102,共7页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010)":十二五"时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究;首席专家:高铁梅;国家自然科学基金面上项目(71171035):基于结构突变和截面相关的省际碳排放面板协整检验方法;负责人:王维国;教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(13YJC790023):碳排放约束下我国省域能源效率;节能减排潜力及路径研究;负责人:范丹;辽宁省高校创新团队支持计(WT2011004):宏观经济系统优化分析;动态监测与政策评价;负责人:王维国

摘　　要：从我国2013年上半年石油行业的各项经济指标出发,分析了我国现阶段石油行业的运行态势与趋势特征,并从石油行业结构优化角度分析了我国石油行业未来发展所面临的挑战。分析认为:2013年上半年,我国石油行业整体回升态势较弱,行业景气指数处于底部平稳运行,但经济运行的内在增长动力有所增强;2季度我国天然气生产同比增长12%,石油产业结构转型和能源结构优化卓见成效;新机制下国内原油价格基本与国际接轨,呈现"U型"波动趋势,2013年初到3季度末,国家动态进行了5次下调,5次上调;未来石油行业低碳经济发展与油品升级,对外依存度的扩大,信息化供应链管理体系的构建是我国石油行业主要面临的挑战。From the economic indicators of China's petroleum industry in the ifrst half of 2013, we qualitativly analyze the situation and the trend at the present stage of China's petroleum industry, and the challenge of petroleum industry from the petroleum industry structure optimization . the conclusions show that overall upward trend of petroleum industry is weak in the ifrst half of 2013 in China, the industry boom index shows in the bottom of a smooth running, but internal growth momentum of economic operation has been enhanced. Natural gas production of China rise 12%in the two quarter, the transformation of petroleum industrial structure and optimization of energy structure have become effective in great. Domestic crude oil prices has been in line with international standards under the new mechanism, showing U lfuctuation, tthe prices are cut for the 5 times and increased for 5 times by the end of the three quarter in 2013. The future development of low carbon economy and upgrade of oil quality, the expansion of degree of dependence on foreign, the construction of informational supply chain management system will be the major challenges of the petroleum industry in China.

关 键 词：石油行业 景气指数 原油价格 低碳经济 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]