基于监测信息和BDLM的桥梁结构可靠度预测  

Reliability Prediction of Bridge Structures Based on Monitoring Information and BDLM

作　　者：樊学平[1] 吕大刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学土木工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第6期1141-1143,1202,共4页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51178150)

摘　　要：结合桥梁结构的健康监测信息(应力极值信息),引进了贝叶斯动态线性模型(BDLM)以及模型的监控机制,建立了应力极值的贝叶斯动态线性预测模型;基于建立的贝叶斯动态线性预测模型和计算可靠度的一次二阶矩(FOSM)方法,对桥梁结构的可靠度进行了预测;通过实例验证了所建模型的合理性。With the health monitoring information of bridge structures( extreme stress value information monitored daily),the Bayesian dynamic linear model( BDLM) and the model monitoring mechanism were introduced,and the Bayesian dynamic linear predicting model of extreme stresses value was established. Based on the established Bayesian dynamic linear prediction model and first order second moment( FOSM) method,the structural reliability of the bridge was predicted. Finally,an actual project was provided to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed model.

关 键 词：应力极值 贝叶斯动态线性模型 一次二阶矩方法 结构可靠度 

分 类 号：U441[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]