展望90年代拉丁美洲的前景  

PROSPECTS FOR LATIN AMERICA IN 1990S

作　　者：徐文渊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》1988年第5期1-5,63,共6页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：第二次世界大战结束后的最初30年,在当今称为第三世界的三大洲中,拉丁美洲是经济发展水平最高的大陆。许多拉美国家的经济建设成就为世人所瞩目。但是,进入80年代后,形势发生了变化。一方面,拉美陷入半个多世纪以来最严重的经济危机。经济衰退、债务危机、恶性通货膨胀等经济问题并发,严重困扰着这个大陆。拉美经济不但没有得到应有的发展,而且某些经济指标,如1987年的人均国民生产总值仅相当于1978年的水平。另一方面,亚洲出现了“四小龙”,中国的经济取得长足的发展,东盟各国的经济开始“起飞”。在这种情况下,拉美尽管在政治制度民主化进程、对外关系争取独立自主等方面取得了显著成就,然而它在全世界和第三世界中的地位已经相形见绌。The future of Latin America is conditioned and affected by various complicated factors, including favorable and unfavorable ones; internal factors and international inviornments the effect of subjective efforts and the influence of objective conditions, etc. Generally speaking, all the developing countries will face the same international enviornment and conditions, their future, therefore, depends more on their perception and will for development, their correct and appropriate policies, and their own political, economic, social and cultural conditions. Although Latin American countries will encounter many difficulties and setbacks in 1990s, as the general trend, 'democratization' will be further carried on and consolidated; problems in Central America is expected to be solved peacefully; new progress will be achieved in their integrations pressures on Latin American economies brought about by foreign debt could be alleviated, and; fruitful results will be attained in their efforts to readjust economic development strategies and to find models more suitable to their national conditions. But it would be inpractical to expect that growth and development levels,of before mid-1970s will be regained in 1990s.

关 键 词：拉美人 拉丁美洲 发展中国家 经济危机 民主化进程 债务危机 独立自主 拉美经济 第三世界 拉美国家 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] F173[政治法律—政治学]