气候和人类因素在黄土高原西北部植被变化中的贡献率研究  

Contributions of Climate and Human to Vegetation Variation on Northwest Loess Plateau

作　　者：孙建国[1,2] 张卓[1] 韩惠[1] 颜长珍[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,兰州730070 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《遥感信息》2014年第2期83-88,共6页Remote Sensing Information

基　　金：中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-04-04);国家自然科学基金项目(41361080);甘肃省自然科学基金(1308RJZA124);兰州交通大学科技支撑基金项目(120008)

摘　　要：定量区分气候和人类因素在黄土高原西北部植被变化中的贡献率,对该区正在开展的退耕还林(草)工程具有重要指导意义。"回归残差法"是当前该领域使用的主要方法之一,但它有混淆气候变化和人类活动作用的内在风险。本文提出一种旨在克服该缺陷的"去趋势回归残差法",即利用去趋势之后的植被和气候数据建立回归模型,再将原始气候数据代入模型得到模拟植被并进行残差趋势分析。基于SPOT VEGETATION NDVI时间序列的研究结果显示:(1)在气候变化趋势性明显时,"去趋势回归残差法"优于常规方法;(2)近15年黄土高原西北部植被活动整体上呈增强态势,这种增强主要由人类因素所致,贡献率达92%,气候变化的作用较弱,贡献率仅为8%。To quantitatively differentiate the contributions of climate and human being to vegetation variation on the northwest of loess plateau is significant to the ongoing vegetation restoration projects.This paper puts forward a method of 'detrended regression residuals method'to eliminate the effect of a common trend.First use the trend-eliminated data of plants and climate to construct regression model and then use the original climate data to simulate the plants and conduct residual analysis.The spot vegetation NDVI based on the experiments of time series shows that,the'detrended regression residuals method'is superior to the conventional methods.The recent 15-year vegetation on the northwestern loess plateau activity has been generally bettering,due to a human contribution rate of 92%and a climate contribution of 8%.Meanwhile,the two effects showed great spatial heterogeneity.

关 键 词：植被变化 气候变化 人类活动 去趋势回归残差法 黄土高原西北部 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]