生产率差距、城市化与劳动配置效应  

Productivity Gap,Urbanization and Labor Allocation Effect

作　　者：秦佳[1] 李雅楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《人口与经济》2014年第3期59-68,共10页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急项目“人口变化对经济发展的影响”(71141012)

摘　　要：钱纳里等认为随着人均收入的增加,劳动配置效应呈倒'U'型变化趋势,但他们并没有解释其背后的机理。本文认为三次产业的劳动生产率差距是劳动配置效应产生的前提,而工业化和城市化的推进使劳动配置效应得以实现。本文依据截面和时间双固定效应的面板数据模型,采用我国1978~2010年的省级数据,对劳动配置效应的倒'U'型变化趋势进行了验证,发现2008年金融危机前我国的劳动配置效应达到了最高点,当前及未来一段时间内,劳动配置效应还能促进经济的增长,但贡献将会越来越低。Chenery said that with the increasing of per capita income, labor allocation effect varied along an inverted “U” shaped curve. But they did not explain its mechanism. This paper argues that the labor productivity gap among three industries is the precondition to produce labor allocation effect and the industrialization and urbanization ensure we achieve labor allocation effects. Based on provincial data in 1978 ~2010 of China, using the cross-section and time fixed effects panel data model, the inverted “U” shaped trend of labor allocation effect is verified. We found that labor allocation effects in China reached the highest point on the eve of financial crisis, in the current and the next period of time, labor allocation effect can also promote economic growth, but the contribution will be getting lower and lower.

关 键 词：生产率差距 城市化 劳动配置效应 倒“U”型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F127F299.27