新型农村社会养老保险政策效应及其影响因素研究  

A Study on the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance Policy Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：封铁英[1,2] 熊建铭[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]西安交通大学社会保障统计与精算研究中心,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《人口与经济》2014年第3期117-128,共12页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“老龄化高峰期农村养老金缺口预测与应对方案研究”(12CRK008);西安市科技研究发展计划软科学项目“城乡一体化发展问题研究--以需求为导向的西安市农村养老资源整合与养老保障体系构建研究”(SF1233-1)

摘　　要：本文借鉴政策综合评估模型,从政策制定目标、政策执行力、政策效果三重维度构建新农保政策效应及其影响因素理论模型;采用分层整群随机抽样方法,通过陕西省西安市新农保试点区县基层工作人员和农村居民双重问卷调查,应用结构方程模型实证分析其内在定量关系与影响机理。结果表明:影响新农保政策效应的关键因素根据显著性大小排序依次为:土地支持、待遇享受、政府支持、经办服务,而参保期望未通过显著性检验。可通过有效发挥土地支持作用,适当调整待遇水平,加大政府支持力度,提升经办机构服务能力,合理引导农民参保期望等具体对策,进一步缓解农民养老压力,优化新农保政策效应。Based on the policy integrated assessment model,this paper constructs the theoretical models of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance policy efficiency and its influencing factors from three view angles of policy formulation,implementation and result,and puts forward the research hypotheses. Based on the questionnaire survey data of basic level government staff and peasants in the pilots in Xi'an City of Shaanxi Province using stratified cluster random sampling method,the paper analyzes their internal quantitative relationships and influencing mechanism with Structure Equation Model. The research results show that the key influencing factors of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance policy efficiency are land support,treatment level,government support and agency service,but the participation expectation factor cannot pass the significant testing. Finally the paper puts forward some suggestions: giving full pay to the role of land on support,adjusting the peasants' treatment level properly,increasing government support,enhancing agency service ability and guiding the peasants' participation expectation correctly in order to ease the peasants' pension pressure,and maximize the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance policy efficiency.

关 键 词：新型农村社会养老保险 政策效应 影响因素 结构方程模型 问卷调查 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济] F842.612