影响广东省中部沿海热带气旋大风气候特征和重现期分析  

CLIMATIC VARIATION AND RETURN PERIOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN COAST AREAS OF MIDDLE GUANGDONG

作　　者：郑运霞[1] 应明[1] 李永平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《海洋与湖沼》2014年第1期157-165,共9页Oceanologia Et Limnologia Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目;2013CB430305号;国家自然科学基金项目;40921160381号;国家自然科学基金资助项目;41075071号

摘　　要：利用广东省中部沿海台站气象资料,统计分析了影响该地区的热带气旋频数、强度、发生源地、大风风速等气候特征及变化趋势,并进行了台站资料的重现期风速计算。结果表明,热带气旋影响广东省中部沿海多出现于6—9月,其中尤以8月最多;影响热带气旋以强热带风暴和台风最多,它们多生成于南海北部和菲律宾群岛以东洋面;在过去50年间影响热带气旋频数总体上略有下降,在1970和1980年代较多,1960年代和1995—2010年期间较少,影响热带气旋的强度有减弱的趋势。重现期风速极值分布总体上呈从沿岸向内陆迅速减小,以及西部略大、东部略小的特点。Using the observation data from 14 weather stations in the past 59 years(1952—2010) in the coastal regions of the middle Guangdong, South China, tropical cyclones(TCs) and their frequency, scale, source region distribution, and interannual and decadal variability were studied. Meanwhile, strong wind(velocity ≥10.8m/s) and their return periods were analyzed. The results indicate that the affecting TCs in the region occurred mainly from June to September, and particularly in August. Most of the TCs were severe tropical storm or tropical storm and the most of them were generated at the northern South China Sea or the ocean east of the Philippines. During the 59-year period, the frequency of the TCs increased in 1970's and 1980's but decrease in 1960's and 1995 to 2010; in overall, it trended down in frequency and in strength. The extreme wind in return period showed a rapid decrease from coast to inland, and it is slightly larger in western than in eastern part of the study region.

关 键 词：影响热带气旋 频数 强度 源地 大风风速 重现期 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]