养老保险的理论与模式——人口与经济制约因素分析  

Theory and Models of Old Age Insurance: A Demographic and Economic Approach

作　　者：刘贵平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口系

出　　处：《人口研究》1996年第4期61-70,共10页Population Research

摘　　要：本文从养老保险的基本概念出发,详细论述了养老保险在社会保险和老年保险中的作用与地位。用时期分析与队列分析方法对养老保险基金模式类型进行了重新划分,构造出分析人口与养老保险相互制约关系的有效手段。对时期平衡与队列平衡中的再分配特性进行了定量分析,在此引出著名的Aaron条件,结合稳定人口理论对其再证明,并应用于中国数据检验。提出中国城镇职工养老保险成熟期的概念,及其政策含义。在人口、劳动力市场和社会保障相互关系基础上,全面分析了生育率,平均预期寿命、退休年龄,人口迁移与流动对养老保险的影响。研究了城镇职工养老保险的水平与结构,剖析了现行农村养老保险的优劣及相应的改进措施。最后,归纳出本文的主要研究结论及今后研究设想。This article is an abbreviation of doctorate dissertation, which mainly dealed with demographic aspects of pension plans, combined with some economic elements. Based on a new classification of pension fund, using period analysis and cohort analysis, firstly the author analysed the redistributive characteristics of old age insurance, the well-known Aaron---conditionwas used to evaluate the intergenerational transfer of old age insurance in urban China. Then, under the frame of relationships among population, labour employement and social security, this thesis explored the influence of fertility, life expentan-cy, retirement age, migration and urbanization over old age insurance. Furthermore, the author pointed out the principles for the calculation of rational 'replacement rate' and the relations between types of pension fund and their pressure to gover-ment budget. Finally, both advantages and disadvantages of old age insurance in rural area of China were concluded and some suggested countermeasures were given.

关 键 词：养老保险基金 农村养老保险 制约因素分析 社会保险 理论与模式 工资替代率 人口与经济 退休年龄 城镇职工 人口老龄化 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]