一种基于条件概率的飞机安全性分析模型  

Model for Aircraft Safety Analysis Based on Conditional Probability

作　　者：舒文军[1] 何宇廷[1] 崔荣洪[1] 杜金强[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学工程学院飞行器与动力工程系,西安710038

出　　处：《航空精密制造技术》2009年第6期53-57,共5页Aviation Precision Manufacturing Technology

摘　　要：飞机的安全性不等同于飞机的可靠性,除与可靠性相关外,它还与安全监控系统、事故反应时间等相关。在分析飞机安全性与可靠性关系的基础上,从条件概率的角度,建立了一种新的飞机安全性分析模型。最后通过案例分析表明,建立的模型是有效的。Aircraft safety is not equal to the reliability of aircraft. It has relation with, besides reliability, the safety monitoring system, accident response time and so on. Based on the analysis of the relationship between safety and reliability, a model for aircraft safety analysis is established from the viewpoint of conditional probability. A case is given to validate the model. The results indicate that the model is effective in the aircraft safety analysis.

关 键 词：飞机安全性 固有属性 条件概率 模型 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]