Modeling earthquake indexes derived from the earthquake warning system upon the planet earth  

作　　者：LI Yong National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China 

出　　处：《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》2010年第12期2293-2299,共7页中国科学：物理学、力学、天文学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10973022)

摘　　要：By studying the correlation between historical earthquake data and the distributional characteristics of parameters of solid earth tides in the earthquake epicenter, we are able to design a forecasting function of earthquake probability. We put forward a design method for the Earthquake Warning System. The model could theoretically simulate and be used to predict the probability of strong earthquakes that could occur anywhere at any time. In addition, the system could also conveniently obtain global or partial Modeling Earthquake Indexes to finally combine the precise pointing prediction and forecast of partial indexes. The literature quotes global data values, provided by NEIC, of 1544 M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes. It also gives examples of instantaneous earthquake indexes of the whole world and Taiwan Region on 1st January 2010, UT=0:00 and the average earthquake index near the Taiwan Region. According to the 10-year pointing prediction of strong earthquakes in San Francisco, the literature provides the average earthquake index on 24th June 2015 (± 15 days), in its neighborhood.By studying the correlation between historical earthquake data and the distributional characteristics of parameters of solid earth tides in the earthquake epicenter, we are able to design a forecasting function of earthquake probability. We put forward a design method for the Earthquake Warning System. The model could theoretically simulate and be used to predict the probability of strong earthquakes that could occur anywhere at any time. In addition, the system could also conveniently obtain global or partial Modeling Earthquake Indexes to finally combine the precise pointing prediction and forecast of partial indexes. The literature quotes global data values, provided by NEIC, of 1544 M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes. It also gives examples of instantaneous earthquake indexes of the whole world and Taiwan Region on 1st January 2010, UT=0:00 and the average earthquake index near the Taiwan Region. According to the 10-year pointing prediction of strong earthquakes in San Francisco, the literature provides the average earthquake index on 24th June 2015 (± 15 days), in its neighborhood.

关 键 词：EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE WARNING SYSTEM astrogeodynamics INDEX 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]