Natural and anthropogenic impacts on the Asian monsoon precipitation during the 20th century  

作　　者：Zhou Xin Guo ZhengTang Qin Li 

机构地区：[1]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China [2]Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China [3]China Three Gorges Museum, Chongqing Gorges Inst Paleoanthropol 3, Chongqing 400015, Peoples R China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2010年第11期1683-1688,共6页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos.KZCX2-YW-Q1-15 and KZCX2-YW-117);National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40730104)

摘　　要：The increase in the global average temperature during the last century is considered an integrated result of anthropogenic and natural forcing, but different views remain about the anthropogenic impacts on the Asian monsoon precipitation. Based on the ~2000-year records of stalagmite δ18O from the Dongge Cave (Guizhou Province) and Wanxiang Cave (Gansu Province), we address the possible anthropogenic impacts on the southwest and southeast Asian monsoon from 1900-2000 AD, using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). The results show that the monsoon precipitation trends in the last 100 years at both sites can be obtained through SSA prediction using the data prior to 1900 AD. These suggest that human activity has not significantly affected the trends of monsoon precipitation despite of its impact on the global temperature.The increase in the global average temperature during the last century is considered an integrated result of anthropogenic and natural forcing, but different views remain about the anthropogenic impacts on the Asian monsoon precipitation. Based on the ~2000-year records of stalagmite δ18O from the Dongge Cave (Guizhou Province) and Wanxiang Cave (Gansu Province), we address the possible anthropogenic impacts on the southwest and southeast Asian monsoon from 1900-2000 AD, using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). The results show that the monsoon precipitation trends in the last 100 years at both sites can be obtained through SSA prediction using the data prior to 1900 AD. These suggest that human activity has not significantly affected the trends of monsoon precipitation despite of its impact on the global temperature.

关 键 词：global WARMING Asian MONSOON Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) STALAGMITE Δ18O 

分 类 号：N[自然科学总论]