Is It Demographic Dividend or Trap for India and China?  

作　　者：李昕 Christer Ljungwall 徐滇庆 

机构地区：[1]National School of Development, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University [2]Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center [3]University of Western Ontario

出　　处：《China Economist》2010年第6期64-74,共11页中国经济学人（英文版）

摘　　要：The relation between economic growth and population growth is a widely debated topic in economics.The discussioncircles around three main views about demography;(i) Population Neutralism,(ii) Demographic Dividends,and (iii)Demographic Traps.This paper provides a quantitative definition of the demographic trap based on the theoreticaldemographic distribution curve.We then compare the results of the world’s two most populous countries,China and India.The results show that India may fall into a demographic trap while China will not and,hence these two countries exhibittwo distinctly opposite demographic characteristics.Extending the results to include examination of a set of rich and poorcountries,we conclude that there is no evidence of a demographic trap in the U.S.and Canada,while it is highly possiblethat Algeria and Angola will get caught in one.The relation between economic growth and population growth is a widely debated topic in economics.The discussioncircles around three main views about demography;(i) Population Neutralism,(ii) Demographic Dividends,and (iii)Demographic Traps.This paper provides a quantitative definition of the demographic trap based on the theoreticaldemographic distribution curve.We then compare the results of the world’s two most populous countries,China and India.The results show that India may fall into a demographic trap while China will not and,hence these two countries exhibittwo distinctly opposite demographic characteristics.Extending the results to include examination of a set of rich and poorcountries,we conclude that there is no evidence of a demographic trap in the U.S.and Canada,while it is highly possiblethat Algeria and Angola will get caught in one.

关 键 词：DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS DEMOGRAPHIC TRAPS Lewis- CURVE Economic development 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F135.1[社会学—人口学] C92-05