灰色相关性分析和长沙市城市生活垃圾产生量预测  

Gray Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Municipal Domestic Garbage Output in Changsha

作　　者：文涛[1] 袁兴中[1] 李莲[1] 刘先锋[1] 李惠萌[1] 粟银[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学环境科学与工程学院,长沙410082

出　　处：《城市环境与城市生态》2008年第2期42-44,共3页Urban Environment & Urban Ecology

摘　　要：通过灰色关联系数分析了国内生产总值、人口数量、人均可支配年收入、人均居住面积、社会商品零售总额、燃气入户率、耗电总量、道路广场面积等因素对长沙市生活垃圾产生量的影响程度,并运用灰色对数模型和灰色抛物线模型比较预测了长沙市2007年到2015年间城市生活垃圾产生量的变化趋势。结果表明两种模型均具有较好的预测效果且灰色对数模型精确性更高。据预测,到2010年长沙市城市生活垃圾产生量将达到90.26万t,之后产量基本保持持平并略有减少,到2015年为89.19万t。The prediction of municipal domestic garbage output in Changsha,one of the main cities along Xiang River,will play a positive role in the whole integrate management of solid wastes.The influence levels of gross domestic product(GDP),population size,total retail sales,consumption of gas and electricity,personal dominated income,personal residence acreage,road and square acreage on domestic garbage output of Changsha were analysed with gray correlation analysis method.Gray logarithm power model(GLPM) and Gray parabola power model(GPPM) were utilized to predict the trend of municipal domestic garbage output in Changsha.The results showed that GLPM had a higher accuracy.There will be 90.26×104 and 89.19×104 tons domestic garbage output in 2010 and 2015,respectively.

关 键 词：城市生活垃圾 产生量 长沙市 灰色关联系数 灰色对数模型 灰色抛物线模型 

分 类 号：X799.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]