城市快速路互通立交合流区交通量预测  

Traffic Volume Forecast in the Merging Area of Urban Expressway Interchange

作　　者：臧晓冬[1,2] 周伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100022 [2]广州大学,广州510006 [3]交通部公路科学研究院,北京100088

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2009年第S1期12-15,共4页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(批准号:2006BAJ18B03)资助

摘　　要：分析了快速路互通立交主线总交通量、交织流量比和主线外侧第二车道大型车比例等3种因素对合流区端部主线最外侧车道交通量的影响,得出上述3种因素与合流区端部主线最外侧车道交通量具有非线性关系。在实际调查数据的基础上,采用广义神经网络对合流区主线最外侧车道的交通量进行了预测,并与实际调查数据对比,对比结果证明预测效果良好。The paper analyzed the influence of the total traffic volume of main-lane and the ratio of weaving traffic volume to total traffic volume and the heavy vehicle proportion of No.2 lane on the traffic volume of merging area outmost lane in the urban expressway interchange.It concludes that the three factors above have no-linear relations with the traffic volume of the merging area outmost lane.Then,the traffic volume of outmost lane in the merge area was forecast based on field data by the model of generalized regression neutral network.The forecasting results match perfectly with the actual data.

关 键 词：交通工程 预测广义神经网络 交通量 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]