军转民土地项目市场开发期权决策模型研究  

Research on Real Option Decision Model of Market Development of Land Project in Military to Civilian Conversion

作　　者：梅洪亮[1] 申珅[1] 夏恩君[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《兵工学报》2009年第S1期165-169,共5页Acta Armamentarii

摘　　要：在军转民成为当今世界发展潮流的今天,军转民土地开发与民用土地开发具有面临市场不确定性的共同特征,故将期权决策模型引入到军转民土地开发中有利于军转民土地项目开发的科学决策。在回顾相关文献的基础上,建立了基于实物期权的基本模型,并对模型进行了求解以计算出执行期权的临界价格。最后,结合某军转民项目的开发实例,对建立的模型进行了应用分析,证实了模型的实用性。Military to civilian conversion becomes a global trend now.As market developments of land project in civilian and military to civilian conversion have the same characteristic of uncertainty,real option decision model can be introduced into scientific decision of the market developments.Based on relevant literature,a basic model composed of real option was framed,and the critical price of exercise real option was calculated with the model.Practicability of the model was verified by applied analysis method based on a developing example of a certain project for military to civilian conversion.

关 键 词：企业管理 军转民 土地开发 期权决策 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济] F832.5F224