Impact of Subsurface Entrainment on ENSO Prediction: 1997-98 El Nio  

作　　者：ZHOU Guang-Qing and ZHU Jie-Shun Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2009年第5期261-266,共6页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-218);the National Basic Research Program of China (2006CB403606);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40821092)

摘　　要：Twenty-one-year hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific were performed to validate the influence of ocean subsurface entrainment on SST prediction.A new hybrid coupled model was used that considered the entrainment of subsurface temperature anomalies into the sea surface.The results showed that predictions were improved significantly in the new coupled model.The predictive correlation skill increased by about 0.2 at a lead time of 9 months,and the root-mean-square (RMS) errors were decreased by nearly 0.2°C in general.A detailed analysis of the 1997-98 El Nio hindcast showed that the new model was able to predict the onset,peak (both time and amplitude),and decay of the 1997-98 strong El Nio event up to a lead time of one year,factors that are not represented well by many other forecast systems.This implies,in terms of prediction,that subsurface anomalies and their impact on the SST are one of the controlling factors in ENSO cycles.Improving the presentation of such effects in models would increase the forecast skill.Twenty-one-year hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific were performed to validate the influence of ocean subsurface entrainment on SST prediction.A new hybrid coupled model was used that considered the entrainment of subsurface temperature anomalies into the sea surface.The results showed that predictions were improved significantly in the new coupled model.The predictive correlation skill increased by about 0.2 at a lead time of 9 months,and the root-mean-square (RMS) errors were decreased by nearly 0.2°C in general.A detailed analysis of the 1997-98 El Nio hindcast showed that the new model was able to predict the onset,peak (both time and amplitude),and decay of the 1997-98 strong El Nio event up to a lead time of one year,factors that are not represented well by many other forecast systems.This implies,in terms of prediction,that subsurface anomalies and their impact on the SST are one of the controlling factors in ENSO cycles.Improving the presentation of such effects in models would increase the forecast skill.

关 键 词：SUBSURFACE ENTRAINMENT ENSO prediction 1997-98 EL Nio 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]