EXPERIMENTAL　STUDIES　WITH　AN　OPERATIONAL　NUMERICAL　MODEL　FOR　PREDICTION　OF　TYPHOON　TRACKS　OVER　THE　SOUTH　CHINA　SEA　REGION  

作　　者：王康玲 何安国 薛纪善 

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》1996年第1期56-66,共11页热带气象学报（英文版）

摘　　要：ＥＸＰＥＲＩＭＥＮＴＡＬＳＴＵＤＩＥＳＷＩＴＨＡＮＯＰＥＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＬＮＵＭＥＲＩＣＡＬＭＯＤＥＬＦＯＲＰＲＥＤＩＣＴＩＯＮＯＦＴＹＰＨＯＯＮＴＲＡＣＫＳＯＶＥＲＴＨＥＳＯＵＴＨＣＨＩＮＡＳＥＡＲＥＧＩＯＮ￥ＷａｎｇＫａｎｇｌｉｎｇ，ＨｅＡｎｇｕｏ...Experiments for short range forecasting of typhoon tracks over the South China Sea Region were carried out using limited-area numerical model recently developed by the authors. Due to the shortage of sounding data over the sea, typhoon circulations are usually obtained incompletely from objective analysis, or with significant deviation of the centre from reality. Therefore a set of schemes for typhoon initialization are proposed here to construct a bogus typhoon with the circulation being consistent with the physical processes included in the limited-area model. Based on the schemes bogus data over the model grids are created and analysed together with conventional observational data. Then the normal model initialization scheme is issued to further modulate the model typhoon with the numeriCal modeel.Some experiments of sensitivity in various aspects are conducted for further improvement of typhoon track predictions. The experimental results for a number of typhoon landing in southern China in 1993 and 1994 shows that the limited-area model is capable of predicting typhoon tracks in the southern China region.

关 键 词：TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION of TYPHOON track sensitivity test 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]