Fuzzy Risk Analysis of Harbour Engineering Investment by Hierarchy System Approach  

作　　者：Lin Shaopei and Zhang Zhongming Professor, Civil and Architectural Engineering Dept., Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai Lecturer, Civil and Architectural Engineering Dept., Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 

出　　处：《China Ocean Engineering》1992年第1期87-94,共8页中国海洋工程（英文版）

摘　　要：The present risk analysis model of engineering investment is built by fuzzy hierarchy approach under the assumption of maximizing the revenues of the project during its whole life cycle of operation. It can reasonably be expressed by a system evaluation analysis. As a matter of fact, the system, aimed by its system goal can be modelled by a set of factors, constitutively structured by certain links between them, to form a factorial network chart, which represents the essentials of the system behaviours, the nodes of which represent the factors concerned. The weight distribution between factors located at the same level can be determined by the eigen-value problem of a 'pair comparison' relation matrix. The weight distribution of factors at each level is successively manipulated until the fuzzy synthetic risk assessment. As an example of risk analysis of engineering investment, a harbour construction project is presented for illustration.The present risk analysis model of engineering investment is built by fuzzy hierarchy approach under the assumption of maximizing the revenues of the project during its whole life cycle of operation. It can reasonably be expressed by a system evaluation analysis. As a matter of fact, the system, aimed by its system goal can be modelled by a set of factors, constitutively structured by certain links between them, to form a factorial network chart, which represents the essentials of the system behaviours, the nodes of which represent the factors concerned. The weight distribution between factors located at the same level can be determined by the eigen-value problem of a 'pair comparison' relation matrix. The weight distribution of factors at each level is successively manipulated until the fuzzy synthetic risk assessment. As an example of risk analysis of engineering investment, a harbour construction project is presented for illustration.

关 键 词：risk analysis engineering economic fuzzy mathematics analytic hierarchy process 

分 类 号：P7[天文地球—海洋科学]