应用Box—Jenkins模型预测死亡率  

THE BOX-JENKINS MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN FORECASTING MORTALITY

作　　者：黄惠容[1] 钱建明[1] 

机构地区：[1]华西医科大学卫生统计学教研室

出　　处：《现代预防医学》1991年第4期209-211,252,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：Box—Jenkins模型是近代时序分析中新发展的一种数学模型。本文选取了四川省1975～1985十一年的死亡率资料,应用该模型从时间域方面预测了该省今后十五年(1986～2000)的死亡率,并就应用过程中的一些问题进行了探讨。The Box-Jenkins model is a recently developed method of time series analysis Which describes the interelation and change rule of uncountable observations at the theory level, and quantifies the auto-correlation between the observations, so it can forecast the future data of the time series using real observations.This study selected the eleven years (1975-1985) of mortality data from Sichuan province, applied the Box-Jenkins model to forecast fifteen years (1986-2000) mortality in this province, and made some research applications.

关 键 词：Box—Jenkins模型 死亡率 

分 类 号：R1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]