THE MONTHLY PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS USING A COUPLED ANALOGY-DYNAMICAL MODEL  

作　　者：黄建平 王绍武 

机构地区：[1]Department of Geophysics,Peking University,Beijing

出　　处：《Acta meteorologica Sinica》1991年第1期8-15,共8页

摘　　要：Considering from point of view of the dynamics,it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field,and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics.Along this line,a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making monthly prediction. This approach facilitated the utility of the useful information contained in both the historical data set and the initial field to improve the dynamic model based solo on the latter and show better skill in prediction.Considering from point of view of the dynamics,it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field,and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics.Along this line,a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making monthly prediction. This approach facilitated the utility of the useful information contained in both the historical data set and the initial field to improve the dynamic model based solo on the latter and show better skill in prediction.

关 键 词：long-range prediction dynamical prediction historical analogy analogy-dynamical approach 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]