10种国内森林火险计算方法的相似性研究  

Study on similarity of calculation methods of 10 Chinese forests fire danger rating

作　　者：孙萍[1] 李大伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,黑龙江省哈尔滨150040 [2]武警森林指挥部机动支队,北京100000

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2013年第5期16-21,共6页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：林业公益性行业科研专项(201204508)

摘　　要：为研究不同火险预报方法之间的相似性,选取了我国南北方和东西部不同地区10种火险预报方法,根据2009～2010年10个地区的气象数据,分别用所选用的10种方法进行火险指标计算并计算不同地区和方法的指标相关性,进而进行相似性分析。结果表明:这些方法间存在着很大的相似现象,每种方法至少与其它6种方法中度以上相似,2种方法与其它9种方法全部中度以上相似,只有2种方法不相似;方法间为相似度较高的原因有二,一个是各种方法选用的气象因子基本相同,另一个是每种方法中的主要火险因子相同。这对建立更普适的全国性火险天气预报方法提供了借鉴。Ten Chinese forest fire danger forecast methods from regions all around China were chosen to explore their similarity.The forest fire danger indexes were computed by taking the weather data in 2009～2010 and were compared by using correlation coefficient method to depict their similarity.The results indicate that the high similarity existed among these 10 methods.Each method had moderate similarity to high similarity with at least 6 other methods.Two of the methods were moderately or highly similar to all the rest 9 methods.There were only two methods which were not similar to each other.The reason for such high similarity is that these methods used similar weather variables and similar major fire danger factors.The results also provide a basis for developing forest fire danger rating systems with more national-wide adaptability.

关 键 词：森林火险预报 气象因子 相似性研究 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]