我国城镇化发展与城乡居民消费的关系研究——基于协整与误差修正模型  

On the Relationship between Urbanization and Residents' Consumption Based on Cointegration and Error Correction Model

作　　者：吴其勉[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福建福州350007

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第9期880-887,共8页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：科技部国家软科学研究计划项目(2012GXS4D087)

摘　　要：2012年我国城镇化率达到52.6%,表明我国有一半人口生活在城镇,城镇化是我国未来经济持续发展的引擎,扩大城乡居民消费的关键。通过Eviews6.0软件,运用Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型对我国1985～2011年的城镇化和城乡消费等相关数据进行实证分析。结果表明,我国城镇化率、城乡居民人均实际收入与城乡居民人均实际消费支出之间存在协整关系;城镇化发展与我国城乡居民人均实际消费水平并不存在短期的格兰杰因果关系,而城乡居民实际收入与实际消费水平存在格兰杰因果关系;误差修正项分别以0.365616和0.652080的力度使城镇化与城乡居民消费的短期波动趋向长期均衡。最后,依据以上的实证分析,提出相应的政策建议。Urbanization rate has reached 52.6% in China in 2012.Based on urbanization and rural consumption and other related data from 1985 to2011,using Johansen cointegration test,Grainger causality test and error correction model by Eviesw6.0software,this paper analyzed the relationship between urbanization and residents' consumption.The results show that there is cointegration relationship among urbanization rate,real per capita income,per capita consumption expenditure;There is no short-term Grainger causal relationship between urbanization and per capita consumption level,while the real income and the actual consumption level exist Grainger causal relationship;The error correction term respectively by 0.365616 and 0.652080strength make short-term fluctuations of urbanization and residents consumption trend to long-term equilibrium.Finally,it put forward some useful policy recommendations.

关 键 词：城镇化 居民消费 协整 格兰杰因果 误差修正 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]