中国肉羊产业发展现状及供需展望  

Development Status of China′s Meat Sheep and Goat Industry and Its Supply and Demand Prospects

作　　者：刘春芳[1] 王济民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2013年第6期45-51,68,共8页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：2012年中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所)第七期资助项目

摘　　要：在分析中国肉羊产业现状和发展趋势的基础上,基于局部均衡理论,利用2000—2011年相关数据构建供需平衡模型,预测2012—2025年中国未来羊肉供需变化。结果表明,2012—2015年中国羊肉生产、消费均呈显著减少趋势,由于产量减少幅度大于需求减少幅度,国内供给保障率由97%下降至96%左右,另外,受较高生产成本以及旺盛需求的影响,国内羊肉价格水平将有较大幅度提高。2015—2025年中国羊肉生产量和消费量将缓慢增长,但消费量增幅远大于产量增幅,国内供给保障率由96%降至95%。Based on the relevant data of livestock production in 2000-2011 and analysis of the development status and trend of meat sheep and goat industry in China,an equilibrium model between supply and demand was built to predict the changes of supply and demand for sheep and goat meat in 2012-2025 according to the partial equilibrium theory.As a result, both of production and consumption for sheep and goat meat in 2012-2015 will show a significant decreasing tendency,and the domestic safeguard rate for sheep and goat meat supply will drop to about 96% from 97%,as the decreased rate of its production will be higher than that of demand.In addition,the domestic price of sheep and goat meat will rise substantially,due to the increased production costs and active demands on sheep and goat meat.The domestic production and consumption of sheep and goat meat will increase slowly in 2015-2025,but the increased rate of its consumption will be far higher than that of production.Therefore,the domestic safeguard rate for sheep and goat meat supply will further drop to 95% from 96%.

关 键 词：肉羊产业 供需 预测 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]