Estimation Method of Schedule-cost Correlation Coefficient of Spaceflight Project  

作　　者：Liu Yanqiong(Humanity and Social Science School,National University of Defence Technology,Changsha,410073,China) 

出　　处：《工程科学（英文版）》2007年第3期69-75,共7页Engineering Sciences

摘　　要：To evaluate the cost risk and the schedule risk of the spaceflight project,the schedule-cost(S-C) correlation coefficient is directly appointed according to the experts' experience usually.This paper deduces SDMCU(the schedule distribution model considering the effect of the cost uncertainty),and then proposes the approximate formula to estimate the ln(S)-C correlation coefficient based on the models of SDMCU and CDMSU(the cost distribution model considering the effect of the schedule uncertainty).Furthermore,an approximate relationship expression of the S-C and the ln(S)-C correlation coefficients is put forward according to general facts and the Taylor expansion,and advanced by means of mass numerical validation is the general rule of obtaining the estimation value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient based on the historical data.To evaluate the cost risk and the schedule risk of the spaceflight project,the schedule-cost(S-C) correlation coefficient is directly appointed according to the experts' experience usually.This paper deduces SDMCU(the schedule distribution model considering the effect of the cost uncertainty),and then proposes the approximate formula to estimate the ln(S)-C correlation coefficient based on the models of SDMCU and CDMSU(the cost distribution model considering the effect of the schedule uncertainty).Furthermore,an approximate relationship expression of the S-C and the ln(S)-C correlation coefficients is put forward according to general facts and the Taylor expansion,and advanced by means of mass numerical validation is the general rule of obtaining the estimation value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient based on the historical data.

关 键 词：SPACEFLIGHT project risk COST SCHEDULE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT 

分 类 号：V529[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]