江苏省老龄化系数预测研究  

The Prediction of Aging Coefficient of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：吕盛鸽[1] 洪少锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学经贸学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第4期1-5,共5页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09BTJ005)

摘　　要：根据1978—2010年江苏省常住人口数据,针对1970年以来总和生育率迅速下降以及新中国成立后平均预期寿命不断增长的省情,构建了老年人数预测值满足江苏省老年人口峰值期的向量自回归模型。在设定省际净迁移人数及低、中、高三种总和生育率方案下,利用模型预测了江苏省2011—2050年的总人数、老年人数以及老龄化系数。结果表明:在低、中、高三种总和生育率方案下,老年人数均在2040年达到峰值1 525万人左右,老龄化系数依次在2050年、2049年和2047年达到峰值19.50%、18.73%和18.54%,到2050年分别下降至19.50%、18.72%和18.50%。Based on the resident population data in Jiangsu Province from 1978 to 2010,the provincial situation of the rapid decline of total fertility rate since 1970 and the gradual growth of the average life expectancy since 1949,the VAR model is constructed for the prediction of the peak time of the elderly population which meets the peak period of Jiangsu Province.Then the VAR models is used to predict the total population,elderly population and aging coefficient from year of 2011 to the year of 2050 by setting a forecasting method of calculating the future trends of inter-provincial net migration and low,medium,high total fertility rates.The results show that based on the three programs of forecasting low,medium and high total fertility rates,all the peaks of elderly population will reach up to 15.25 million in 2040,and the aging coefficient will reach to 19.5%,18.73% and 18.54% in 2050,2049 and 2047 sequentially,and finally will decrease to 19.5%,18.72% and 18.5% in 2050.

关 键 词：常住人口 向量自回归模型 总和生育率 老龄化系数 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]