江苏省老年人口峰值预测  

Prediction of Elderly Population Maximum of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：洪少锋[1] 吕盛鸽[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学经贸学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第1期34-38,共5页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09BTJ005)

摘　　要：在对出生率、死亡率和净迁移率分别作出假设的基础上,利用调整后的联合国平均预期寿命发展模型,预测2010-2050年江苏省人口平均预期寿命。然后利用平均预期寿命与年龄别死亡率间的量化关系,编制关键年份的人口完全生命表,以此估计生存率。之后结合2000年各年龄组人数,预测2011年至2049年进入老年群体人数与老年人口死亡总数,根据老年人口净增加值序列的变动特点,最终确定江苏省老年人口的峰值期与峰值。Based on the respective assumptions of the birth rate,the mortality rate and the net migration rate,the development model of average life expectancy of the United Nations is modified to predict the average life expectancy of Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2050.According to the quantitative relationship between the average life expectancy and the mortality rate in ages,the Complete Life Tables of some key years are draw up to estimate the survival ratio.Then it was combined with the population in all age groups of year of 2000 to predict the number of people into the older age groups and elderly population deaths from the years 2011 to 2049.At last,the time to reach the elderly population peak period and the maximum is fixed according to the changing characteristics of the net addition series of the elderly population.

关 键 词：人口平均预期寿命 人口完全生命表 峰值期 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]