从经济周期看美国金融危机  

Study on the United States' Financial Crisis from the Perspective of Business Cycle

作　　者：尹国俊[1] 曾可昕[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学财经学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2009年第2期29-32,共4页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(04CJL018);浙江省高校中青年学科带头人资助计划(GK080228)

摘　　要：在金融泡沫尚未崩溃之前,美国经济实际已经处于长周期的衰退阶段。但新经济论高估技术与制度创新的作用,忽略了正常的经济周期,认识不到美国制造业包括IT产业的周期性衰退。美国企图以极低的利率刺激高新技术产业的高速发展,引起了虚拟经济的过度膨胀。美国金融危机实际上是被人为拉长而积聚了严重失衡的经济周期的一次硬性回归,它的背后是制造业的先期衰退。Before the collapse of the financial bubble,the economy of the United States actually has already been in the recession phase of a long cycle.But the new economic theory overestimates the role of new technologies and innovation and neglects the normal business cycle,without acknowledge of the cyclical downturn of manufactures including IT industry.They attempt to stimulate the rapid development of high-tech industries with extremely low interest rates,which brings the excessive expansion of the virtual economy.In fact,the U.S.financial crisis is a hard return of the serious imbalanced economic cycle which has been artificially lengthened and it is the decline of the manufacturing sector in pre-recession actually.

关 键 词：经济周期 美国 金融危机 新经济 

分 类 号：F837.12[经济管理—金融学]