一种战争复杂系统仿真可信性的整体评估方法  

Holistic Evaluation Method to Simulation Credibility of War Complex System

作　　者：谭亚新[1] 杨学会[1] 范锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]装甲兵工程学院装备指挥与管理系,北京100072

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2013年第S1期310-313,317,共5页Journal of System Simulation

摘　　要：着眼作战仿真可信性这一亟待解决的问题,从战争复杂系统与作战仿真系统在作战胜负、作战时间、作战消耗、参战实体的平均速度、平均决策周期等方面的整体相似性出发,根据"两个层次,三种模式"的评估方法的体系,提出了基于整体指标规则推理的仿真可信性评估方法,建立了推理模型,给出了基于该方法的仿真可信性评估案例,证实了该方法可行性。Aiming at the serious problem of war simulation credibility,the similarity between the War Complex System and its simulation system in fives aspects were analyzed which included victory or defeat,duration,consume,average velocity and average decision cycle,and then the war simulation credibility evaluation method based on the above fives holistic indexes was put forward in the 'two levels and three models' evaluation method frame,and inference model was built.Finally,according to simulation practice,this method has preferable validity.

关 键 词：战争复杂系统 仿真 可信性 整体评估 

分 类 号：E83[军事—战术学] N945.13[自然科学总论—系统科学]