道路工程施工阶段工期风险计算方法与应用  

Risk analysis method for project duration of highways during construction period and its application

作　　者：韩尚宇[1] 李红[2] 洪宝宁[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]南昌航空大学土木建筑学院,江西南昌330063 [2]南昌大学科学技术学院,江西南昌330029 [3]河海大学岩土力学与堤坝工程教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [4]河海大学岩土工程科学研究所,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《岩土工程学报》2013年第S1期264-268,共5页Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51168039)

摘　　要：为提高道路施工过程中工期分析的准确度,结合风险分析理论,建立了一个新的道路工程工期风险计算方法。该法首先根据道路工程施工特点,给出了阶段允许工期、阶段工期期望、阶段工期风险率、阶段工期权重、阶段工期风险的定义;然后结合简单施工流程图,对道路工程工期风险计算方法进行讨论;最后,以佛山"一环"路堤施工过程中的工期风险计算为例,演示了该计算方法的使用过程,验证其实用性。In order to enhance the analysis accuracy of projects duration of highways during construction period,a new method for is established road duration risk based on the risk analysis theory.Firstly,the following concepts are defined: allowable stage duration,expected according to the characteristic of road construction stage duration,risk rate of stage duration,weight of stage duration and stage time risk.Secondly,the proposed method for project duration risk of highways associated with is discussed the simple construction flow chart.Finally,taking the risk evaluation of the embankment construction process of the first ring road in Foshan as an example,the calculation process of the method is demonstrated,and its practicality is rerified.

关 键 词：工期风险 风险分析 施工流程图 概率分布 

分 类 号：U415.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]