回归分析法在规划大气环评中的应用  

Application of Regression Analysis in the Planning of Atmospheric Environmental Impact Assessment

作　　者：王长征[1] 郭小芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北矿冶研究院,甘肃白银730900

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2013年第S1期370-373,共4页Environmental Science & Technology

摘　　要：规划及开发区由于具体项目的不确定性,使大气环境影响预测源强亦不确定,很难使用现成的大气影响预测模式进行预测。文章通过规划区近5年二氧化硫排放量与区域环境质量之间关系的回归分析,得出回归曲线与方程及环境质量与排放量的简单关系。根据规划实施后二氧化硫的排放量、年均值与良好空气质量天气数量的关系,预测规划实施后的大气环境影响,并针对规划提出了切实可行的防治和减轻环境空气影响的措施。文章采用宏观的回归分析方法,使预测结果的准确性提高;简化大气环境影响评价内容,节约了工作时间;非常适用于老工业基地发展规划的大气环境影响评价。Planning and development zone due to the specific items of uncertainty,the atmospheric environmental impact prediction of source intensity is also uncertain,it's difficult to use ready-made atmospheric impact forecasting model to prediction.This article through regression analysis of the sulfur dioxide emissions between the regional environmental quality in the last five years of the planning area,to draw the regression curve and equation,simple relationship of environmental quality and emissions.Then according to planning the implementation of the relationship between the sulfur dioxide emissions,average value and good air quality weather quantity,forecast the atmospheric environmental impact of planning after the implementation,and for planning and puts forward the feasible prevention and mitigation of air environment influence measures.The article adopts macroscopic regression analysis method,the prediction accuracy of the results is improved;simplified content of atmospheric environmental impact assessment,saving the work time;is suitable for the old industrial base development planning of atmospheric environmental impact assessment.

关 键 词：回归分析法 规划环评 工业园区 大气预测 

分 类 号：X820.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]