基于动态博弈理论的重大工程应急管理决策研究  

Reaserch on Emergency Management Decision-making Based on Dynamic Game Theory in Major Projects

作　　者：王长峰[1] 满颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京邮电大学经济管理学院,北京100876

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2013年第S1期172-176,共5页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目(09YJA630011);国家自然基金项目(70972123);国家自然基金项目(71271031);国家软科学研究计划(2012GXS2B01202)

摘　　要：随着我国经济的发展,大型工程项目不断涌现,项目的复杂性和动态性开始逐渐加大,加剧了项目管理工作的难度。近年来我国工程项目突发事件频繁发生,仅仅采用单项目风险应急管理理论和方法进行决策已经无济于事。本文基于动态博弈理论,分析工程项目应急管理系统特点,构建系统内部网络组织实体动态博弈模型,该方法弥补了传统项目管理方法的不足,完善应急管理的动态决策方法,也为应急管理水平的提高提供一定的参考依据。Along with the rapid economic development in China,large engineering projects keep springing up and their complexity and dynamic nature begin to deepen,therefore aggravating the difficulties in project management.In recent years,project emergencies occurred frequently in our country;in this regard,making decisions using theories and methods of single project risk and emergency management is no longer of avail.Based on the dynamic game theory,we in this paper analyzed the characteristics of the engineering project emergency management system and built a dynamic game model for the network organization entities inside the system.This method could make up for the deficiency of traditional project management methods,improve the dynamic decision- making in emergency management,and provide valuable references for industy to improve emergency management level.

关 键 词：非常规突发事件 工程项目应急管理 动态博弈 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济] F062.4