应用修正后的折现金流法对矿业权价值的评估  

Applied Modified DCF to Evaluate Mineral Rights

作　　者：黎斌林[1] 单胜召[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第S2期400-403,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘　　要：本文以理论研究与对山东某金矿价值的核算相结合,认为在矿业权价值评估实务中,由于实物期权法能有效的修正折现金流法(DCF)的不确定性和决策弹性的缺陷,因此是DCF法的重要补充。折现率的取值对最终的价值的影响或可高达50%,而现行的8%-10%的固定折现率缺乏弹性,βdownside系数能排除了非对称、非规则性的收益率分布仅将低于给定目标收益率的各种可能情况归为风险计量范围,可有效地描述所有潜在风险,因此更加符合矿业权项目折现率的确定。Real Option Approach( ROV) is a valuable supplement to the DCF Model for involving the uncertainty and operating flexibility of mineral properties. Different discount rate can cause a variation of as far as 50% in the value on the property using empirical methodology. Asymmetric and irregular return rate distribution under D-CAPM is excluded which is more reasonable in mineral properties valuation compared with fixed discounted rate( 8%- 10%). The modified model comprised of ROV and D-CAPM closer to the actual transaction result through empirical analysis.

关 键 词：矿业权 实物期权法 折现率 下侧资本资产定价模型 

分 类 号：F426.1[经济管理—产业经济] F406.72